Chalabigate

January 29, 2005

E. Basyurt

Famous journalist Seymour Hersh reported another agenda-forming news leaked to him, in the recent edition of New Yorker magazine.

The United States claimed that spy teams had secretly infiltrated into Iran and determined the target of a possible attack.

Before the military intervention in Afghanistan and Iraq, a few members of the special team affiliated to the CIA had infiltrated into these countries and the intelligence they gathered shaped the operation. These teams provided ground support in determining the real targets when the air operations started.

Even though hitting Iran came to the agenda recently, it is indeed not a new plan. The "hawkish" wing of the Bush Cabinet, the "Neo-Cons," that is the "new-Conservatives," based at the Pentagon, have been defending this idea for a long time. However, the State Department and the CIA had not supported it. When first student incidents started in 2001 and reappeared in February 2002, a crack occurred in the Bush administration.

The "Hawks" suggested supporting the opposition group in Iran and ending the regime through a "velvet revolution," like the backing that was given to the "Solidarity" movement in Poland in the 1980s. Michael A. Ledeen in his book entitled "The War Against Terror Masters," includes the details of this encounter. Ledeen indicates that the incidents in February 2002, with pressure from the State Department, were used as an opportunity to start secret meetings with Tehran, not to topple the regime in Iran. He points out that secret meetings continued until the spring of 2003 and ended in failure. Ledeen claims that along with the intervention in Iraq, the United States should wage a simultaneous war against terror masters Iran, Syria and Saudi Arabia.

As a matter of fact, when President George W. Bush revealed the U. S. National Security Strategy in September 2002, he declared Iraq, Iran and North Korea as "the axis of evil." The writer of the text, David Frum, who included this expression in Bush's speech, wrote a book entitled, "An End to Evil," with Richard Perle, a member of the Defense Policy Board Advisory Committee. Frum and Perle claim that the war against Iran, Syria and North Korea should continue in order to be victorious in the fight against terrorism.

It seems that new postings to the State Department and the CIA after Bush's re-election, have ended the division over Iran within the administration. The "Hawks" have taken up positions. However, nuclear weapons are not the only reasons behind the plan to strike Iran. The new-Conservatives accuse Iran of sheltering al-Qaeda militants who escaped from Afghanistan and of supporting the resistance in Iraq by most especially playing the Shiite card.

Among the effective Jewish members of the American Enterprising Institute (AEI), the fortress of new-Conservatives, Perle, Frum and Ledeen think that Iran supports Hezbollah in Lebanon and planned the attack on the Israeli Embassy in Buenos Aires, Argentina. There are aiming at simultaneous targets in both Iran and Iraq: The opposition group should be supported in Iran and a counter-revolution should be realized; a pro-Western secular Shiite government should be brought to power in Iraq. In other words, they do not want an anti-American "Shiite axis" to be formed in the Gulf. Of course, the new-Conservatives, who are after establishing an "American Empire," also have have another vital aim in Iraq, that is, to take over control of the oil in the Gulf.

Will the United States, which is not able to deal with the resistance in Iraq, also hit Iran? As a matter of fact this does not seem very reasonable. At least, a land operation is almost impossible because of Iran's urban structure and the characteristics of the people. The U. S. may be planning to destroy Iran's military infrastructure from the air. However, an operation against Iran might put the United States in a difficult situation against the Shiites in Iraq. The United States may find itself in a wider circle of fire. Secondly, after the weapons of mass destruction fiasco in Iraq, getting international support against Iran would be very difficult. Anti-Americanism might strengthen, particularly in the Islamic world.

If an operation is launched against Iran after Iraq, demands relating to Incirlik might make Turkish-U. S. relations undergo a tough test one more time. I hope the "hawks" act more prudently towards Iran.

http://www.zaman.com/?bl=columnists&alt=&trh=20050131&hn=16094

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