Chalabigate
"Weapons of Mass Deception"
2003-09-10
It is all about Israel's need for oil
by Matt Giwer
10/09/03
I predicted Israel would get Syria's oil. In the last week, Israel has attacked Syria and has moved troops to the border with Syria. The US had gotten Israel's ally, Turkey, to agree to send 10,000 troops into northern Iraq which will be east of the syrian oil fields.
Israel and its braindead fundies (religious fundamentalists) supporters are a political influence in the US be they Christian or Jewish. These fundies control the Bush administration and much of Congress. Israel has mobilized them for its own advantage. The current thrust for war against Iraq is about obtaining a secure source of oil for Israel.
Iraq is not a threat to Israel as Israel's nuclear capability would flatten Iraq. Everyone but the brain-dead fundies agrees Iraq has no nuclear capability. Even if it did it does not have a means to deliver them. Even if a few got through, Israel would lose no more than 5% of its population. Hardly devastating and quite desirable should any of them hit a Palestinian part of town.
It is Israel's nuclear weapons systems which make it immune from strategic attacks. But there is one threat to the existance of Israel as an racist Jewish nation which has been gathering in Europe for nearly a year. Years ago the boycott of South Africa started in the same way, individuals and small companies boycotting South Africa and its products. Should nations, mainly in Europe, agree to a boycott Israel would have to capitulate.
In order to break Apartheid in South Africa much of the world imposed a boycott. South Africa held out for years as it had natural resources including coal which it converted to a usable gasoline. Israel has faced the prospect of a similar boycott since then as it was effective.
The difference between the two countries is striking in the ability to hold out against a boycott. Israel has no natural resources to speak of and specifically no oil or coal. It does not have even one nuclear power plant. Thus Israel has nothing to dump on the market at below market price in exchange for breaking the boycott on essentials. Israel exports nothing any country cannot do without. It exports nothing in any quantity that would affect market prices.
Most important Israel has no way to keep its electric power plants and automobiles operating. In the event of a boycott, Israel would have to survive upon its internal stockpile. A normal storage for a country is 10 to 20 days unless it has been stockpiled in anticipation of a boycott.
Israel has not advertised but likely has a strategic stockpile as does the US with its strategic oil reserve. Due to a number of factors it likely does not. Whereas the US reserve is to minimize the effect of the loss of Mideast oil the US has Latin American sources. All Israeli oil sources would participate if Europe took the lead.
The lights go out in a week
That is the general idea but exaggerated for effect. Crude oil is normally stored simply to smooth out delivery between deliveries which arrive early and late. This is roughly 10 to 20 days worth and on average 10 days. If all deliveries stop that is all a country has for normal usage.
Rationing
The first step would be rationing gasoline and oil. The problem with that is that roughly half a country's consumption is for electric power. Electric power being used for refrigerating food and delivering water makes it impractical to ration. Industrial and residential have a roughly equal share so cutting back industrial use harms the entire economy.
This leaves fuel for transportation the only thing which can easily be rationed. At best, consumption can be reduced by half without harming the entire economy. So one quarter can be rationed. Thus a ten day oil supply can be stretched to only 12-13 days which is faster than a rationing system can be put into place. (Of course Israel would see it coming. It would not happen overnight. So it could have a rationing system in place and internal storage topped off as 20 days and 25% over that from rationing. That results in only a 25 days supply.)
Palestinians are being held as hostages against the imposition of an embargo.
Sugar Daddy USA
On paper the US has guaranteed oil supplies to Israel in the event of a boycott. It is not clear how the US could deliver this in practice. The US does not have a fleet of oil tankers to call upon. Most US consumption is from Latin America using smaller tankers on the short runs. Diverting 1/50th, 2%,1 of the US supply to maintain Israel, due to the greater round trip time across the Atlantic and through the Mediterranean, would reduce deliveries to the US by something like 10% as a ballpark guess.
If all goes perfectly, the difference in travel time from Latin America to Israel is greater than the 13 days Israel has to hold out and close to the maximum 25 days it might have. Thus Israel can only avoid capitulation with supplies diverted from the countries which imposed the boycott. There is no country with a reason to break such a boycott.
Europe would be the leader in this boycott. Arabic countries would certainly honor the boycott. This leaves far eastern oil supplies which offers no practical difference in time from the US as a supplier.
Israel Needs Oil Fields
The religious fundamentalists in the US and Israel do not consider the current borders of Israel to be those on the map. Some go as far as basing territorial claims on the grand promise to Abraham in Genesis of the land from the Nile to the Euphrates, Egypt to Iraq, and of course all the oil therein. They would provide political cover for Israel and the Bush administration.
After the 1967 war Israel's highest priority effort was to pump oil from the Egypt's fields in the Sinai. Those locations are shown on the following map. The Sinai oil field dot is just to the left and below the S in Sinai. It doesn't look like much but it produces about one half million barrels per day. That is just about Israel's needs per day.1
Taking Egypt's oil fields is problematic without the excuse of an Egyptian attack. While the Bush administration and the media will likely support the move it is difficult to see how even the political influence of Israel can cause the US to prevent the steps leading to a "Gulf War II" against Israel.
Regardless of boycott possibilities, Israel has a strategic interest in oil independence. It differs from other countries because of the ever-present threat of a European boycott. So where does Israel go for its' oil?
The following is a generic oil map of the Mideast, more properly southwestern Asia.
Basic oil fields of the region.
Below is the oil field map above approximately rescaled and overlayed on a topographical and political map of the same region.
Israel's northern refinery in Haifa to the nearest oil field which is in Syria is between 350 and 400 miles as the crow flies not as the pipe lays as you can see from the mountains. It is not a flat desert. The fastest and cheapest route would be south around them.
Israel has refused the offer of peace from Syria. Syria offered peace in return for the end of Israel's occupation of the Golan Heights. Syria continues to pressure Israel to return its lands by supporting Lebanon and the Hezbullah which kicked Israel out of Lebanon.
The US was kind enough to add Syria to its "terrorist" nation list because of the above. Israel regularly threatens to invade Syria. Thus one obvious long range strategy is to conquer all of Syria.
Conquest would be easy as Syria's military is nearly twenty years out of date. Occupying Syria would be impossible to do on its own as its population is nearly 17 million as opposed to 6 million for Israel. Thus any occupation would become the obligation of the US. No Syrian government could be acceptable to Israel and thus the US unless it accepted Israel's retention of the Golan Heights and an Israel controlled puppet government in Lebanon.
A secondary benefit of this would be to isolate Lebanon by land as its only borders are with Israel, Syria and Turkey. Turkey is currently has friendly relations with Israel. Lebanon's population is about 3.6 million so it would be possible for Israel to carry out its 1982 conquest and set up a puppet government favorable to Israel. A water pipeline from Turkey to Israel through Lebanon is almost a certainty under these conditions.
As Jordan is presently friendly towards Israel and with Syria and Iraq pacified and occupied by the US, an oil pipeline passing from the oil fields through Jordan to Israel would be part of Jordan's reward. Syria's total oil production is about one half million barrels per day which, like the Sinai fields, is approximately Israel's daily consumption.
As a condition of the war on Iraq the US has agreed in principle that the Kurds will not have a country of their own in Northern Iraq. Should the US renege on this deal it can add the Syrian oil fields to this Kurdistan and extend its borders to Jordan providing military and territorial protection all the way to Israel. A simple justification is that Syria has a population of Kurds in the region of the oil fields.
Were this to happen Kurdistan would have a piece of both the Tigris and Eurphrates rivers permitting it to sell water to Israel. This will permit Israel to support a significantly larger population than at present and give it a source of water independent of imports from Turkey. As there will likely be decades of animosity and conflict between Turkey and this Kurdistan an alternate source of water will be assured from one side or the other.
Reneging on the deal and creating a Kurdistan will be at the instigation of Israel. That fact will be clear to Turkey and end their currently friendly relations with Israel. On the other hand, the US will also lose its friendly relations with Turkey. As the US has puts its relations with Saudi Arabia on the line in its intent to eliminate the Iraqi threat to Israel, it is unlikely the US will be reluctant to do so.
Political support in the US will come from voters and opinion makers whose loyalties are to Israel ahead of to the US, both Christian and Jewish so no problems are posed by these actions for the Bush administration or Congress. In the Mideast, taking on Iraq means cutting ties with most of it in the first place so there is little change. Adding Syria to the mix won't make things twice as bad. The UN and the EU will express serious concerns for a few days and then move on to other parochial interests.
As a benefit to the US it will serve as a warning to other Mideast nations to do as they are told in the future or face the same fate. The US will have a secure Mideast oil supply from Iraq as a result of the conquest. Kuwait is supporting the war as a debt of honor so Kuwaiti oil is also guaranteed. Iran with its 60 million population is the only nation more or less immune to this threat.
Presuming insurrection movements are controlled in the short term a serious long term problem will be the US being unable to say no to freedom of religion in those countries meaning thousands of Christians will flood the country to convert the "heathen." This will be an unending source of conflict and insurgency.
1 estimate based upon the approximate population ratio.
It is all about Israel's need for oil
This site may contain copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml. If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner.
10/09/03
I predicted Israel would get Syria's oil. In the last week, Israel has attacked Syria and has moved troops to the border with Syria. The US had gotten Israel's ally, Turkey, to agree to send 10,000 troops into northern Iraq which will be east of the syrian oil fields.
Israel and its braindead fundies (religious fundamentalists) supporters are a political influence in the US be they Christian or Jewish. These fundies control the Bush administration and much of Congress. Israel has mobilized them for its own advantage. The current thrust for war against Iraq is about obtaining a secure source of oil for Israel.
Iraq is not a threat to Israel as Israel's nuclear capability would flatten Iraq. Everyone but the brain-dead fundies agrees Iraq has no nuclear capability. Even if it did it does not have a means to deliver them. Even if a few got through, Israel would lose no more than 5% of its population. Hardly devastating and quite desirable should any of them hit a Palestinian part of town.
It is Israel's nuclear weapons systems which make it immune from strategic attacks. But there is one threat to the existance of Israel as an racist Jewish nation which has been gathering in Europe for nearly a year. Years ago the boycott of South Africa started in the same way, individuals and small companies boycotting South Africa and its products. Should nations, mainly in Europe, agree to a boycott Israel would have to capitulate.
In order to break Apartheid in South Africa much of the world imposed a boycott. South Africa held out for years as it had natural resources including coal which it converted to a usable gasoline. Israel has faced the prospect of a similar boycott since then as it was effective.
The difference between the two countries is striking in the ability to hold out against a boycott. Israel has no natural resources to speak of and specifically no oil or coal. It does not have even one nuclear power plant. Thus Israel has nothing to dump on the market at below market price in exchange for breaking the boycott on essentials. Israel exports nothing any country cannot do without. It exports nothing in any quantity that would affect market prices.
Most important Israel has no way to keep its electric power plants and automobiles operating. In the event of a boycott, Israel would have to survive upon its internal stockpile. A normal storage for a country is 10 to 20 days unless it has been stockpiled in anticipation of a boycott.
Israel has not advertised but likely has a strategic stockpile as does the US with its strategic oil reserve. Due to a number of factors it likely does not. Whereas the US reserve is to minimize the effect of the loss of Mideast oil the US has Latin American sources. All Israeli oil sources would participate if Europe took the lead.
The lights go out in a week
That is the general idea but exaggerated for effect. Crude oil is normally stored simply to smooth out delivery between deliveries which arrive early and late. This is roughly 10 to 20 days worth and on average 10 days. If all deliveries stop that is all a country has for normal usage.
Rationing
The first step would be rationing gasoline and oil. The problem with that is that roughly half a country's consumption is for electric power. Electric power being used for refrigerating food and delivering water makes it impractical to ration. Industrial and residential have a roughly equal share so cutting back industrial use harms the entire economy.
This leaves fuel for transportation the only thing which can easily be rationed. At best, consumption can be reduced by half without harming the entire economy. So one quarter can be rationed. Thus a ten day oil supply can be stretched to only 12-13 days which is faster than a rationing system can be put into place. (Of course Israel would see it coming. It would not happen overnight. So it could have a rationing system in place and internal storage topped off as 20 days and 25% over that from rationing. That results in only a 25 days supply.)
Palestinians are being held as hostages against the imposition of an embargo.
Sugar Daddy USA
On paper the US has guaranteed oil supplies to Israel in the event of a boycott. It is not clear how the US could deliver this in practice. The US does not have a fleet of oil tankers to call upon. Most US consumption is from Latin America using smaller tankers on the short runs. Diverting 1/50th, 2%,1 of the US supply to maintain Israel, due to the greater round trip time across the Atlantic and through the Mediterranean, would reduce deliveries to the US by something like 10% as a ballpark guess.
If all goes perfectly, the difference in travel time from Latin America to Israel is greater than the 13 days Israel has to hold out and close to the maximum 25 days it might have. Thus Israel can only avoid capitulation with supplies diverted from the countries which imposed the boycott. There is no country with a reason to break such a boycott.
Europe would be the leader in this boycott. Arabic countries would certainly honor the boycott. This leaves far eastern oil supplies which offers no practical difference in time from the US as a supplier.
Israel Needs Oil Fields
The religious fundamentalists in the US and Israel do not consider the current borders of Israel to be those on the map. Some go as far as basing territorial claims on the grand promise to Abraham in Genesis of the land from the Nile to the Euphrates, Egypt to Iraq, and of course all the oil therein. They would provide political cover for Israel and the Bush administration.
After the 1967 war Israel's highest priority effort was to pump oil from the Egypt's fields in the Sinai. Those locations are shown on the following map. The Sinai oil field dot is just to the left and below the S in Sinai. It doesn't look like much but it produces about one half million barrels per day. That is just about Israel's needs per day.1
Taking Egypt's oil fields is problematic without the excuse of an Egyptian attack. While the Bush administration and the media will likely support the move it is difficult to see how even the political influence of Israel can cause the US to prevent the steps leading to a "Gulf War II" against Israel.
Regardless of boycott possibilities, Israel has a strategic interest in oil independence. It differs from other countries because of the ever-present threat of a European boycott. So where does Israel go for its' oil?
The following is a generic oil map of the Mideast, more properly southwestern Asia.
Basic oil fields of the region.
Below is the oil field map above approximately rescaled and overlayed on a topographical and political map of the same region.
Israel's northern refinery in Haifa to the nearest oil field which is in Syria is between 350 and 400 miles as the crow flies not as the pipe lays as you can see from the mountains. It is not a flat desert. The fastest and cheapest route would be south around them.
Israel has refused the offer of peace from Syria. Syria offered peace in return for the end of Israel's occupation of the Golan Heights. Syria continues to pressure Israel to return its lands by supporting Lebanon and the Hezbullah which kicked Israel out of Lebanon.
The US was kind enough to add Syria to its "terrorist" nation list because of the above. Israel regularly threatens to invade Syria. Thus one obvious long range strategy is to conquer all of Syria.
Conquest would be easy as Syria's military is nearly twenty years out of date. Occupying Syria would be impossible to do on its own as its population is nearly 17 million as opposed to 6 million for Israel. Thus any occupation would become the obligation of the US. No Syrian government could be acceptable to Israel and thus the US unless it accepted Israel's retention of the Golan Heights and an Israel controlled puppet government in Lebanon.
A secondary benefit of this would be to isolate Lebanon by land as its only borders are with Israel, Syria and Turkey. Turkey is currently has friendly relations with Israel. Lebanon's population is about 3.6 million so it would be possible for Israel to carry out its 1982 conquest and set up a puppet government favorable to Israel. A water pipeline from Turkey to Israel through Lebanon is almost a certainty under these conditions.
As Jordan is presently friendly towards Israel and with Syria and Iraq pacified and occupied by the US, an oil pipeline passing from the oil fields through Jordan to Israel would be part of Jordan's reward. Syria's total oil production is about one half million barrels per day which, like the Sinai fields, is approximately Israel's daily consumption.
As a condition of the war on Iraq the US has agreed in principle that the Kurds will not have a country of their own in Northern Iraq. Should the US renege on this deal it can add the Syrian oil fields to this Kurdistan and extend its borders to Jordan providing military and territorial protection all the way to Israel. A simple justification is that Syria has a population of Kurds in the region of the oil fields.
Were this to happen Kurdistan would have a piece of both the Tigris and Eurphrates rivers permitting it to sell water to Israel. This will permit Israel to support a significantly larger population than at present and give it a source of water independent of imports from Turkey. As there will likely be decades of animosity and conflict between Turkey and this Kurdistan an alternate source of water will be assured from one side or the other.
Reneging on the deal and creating a Kurdistan will be at the instigation of Israel. That fact will be clear to Turkey and end their currently friendly relations with Israel. On the other hand, the US will also lose its friendly relations with Turkey. As the US has puts its relations with Saudi Arabia on the line in its intent to eliminate the Iraqi threat to Israel, it is unlikely the US will be reluctant to do so.
Political support in the US will come from voters and opinion makers whose loyalties are to Israel ahead of to the US, both Christian and Jewish so no problems are posed by these actions for the Bush administration or Congress. In the Mideast, taking on Iraq means cutting ties with most of it in the first place so there is little change. Adding Syria to the mix won't make things twice as bad. The UN and the EU will express serious concerns for a few days and then move on to other parochial interests.
As a benefit to the US it will serve as a warning to other Mideast nations to do as they are told in the future or face the same fate. The US will have a secure Mideast oil supply from Iraq as a result of the conquest. Kuwait is supporting the war as a debt of honor so Kuwaiti oil is also guaranteed. Iran with its 60 million population is the only nation more or less immune to this threat.
Presuming insurrection movements are controlled in the short term a serious long term problem will be the US being unable to say no to freedom of religion in those countries meaning thousands of Christians will flood the country to convert the "heathen." This will be an unending source of conflict and insurgency.
1 estimate based upon the approximate population ratio.
It is all about Israel's need for oil
This site may contain copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml. If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner.
Milton Frihetsson, 19:34
